Also refer to the MCom + MIB Student Guide

Description

This unit will examine various forecasting approaches and techniques that apply to modern business situations. Students will learn about the role of forecasting in organisations, the information system and data requirements for forecasting and practical forecasting techniques. Students will undertake a major forecasting project.

Topics

• Exploring business forecasting
• Time series, data for prediction, errors and the cost of errors; moving averages; exponential smoothing.
• Prediction of trends; Holt's smoothing model. Seasonal models; decomposition; Winter's smoothing model
• Regression models
• Cycles, predicting cycles; business indicators
• ARIMA model
• Judgemental methods, management and sales force forecasts; formal surveys
• Scenario based methods; Delphi approaches.
• Delphi in practice.