SPECIAL EVENT: Professor Peter Phillips: Unravelling the Mystery of Economic Trends
Event: One –day conference organised and co-hosted by the Division of Economic and Financial Studies, Macquarie University, and the Financial Integrity Research Network (FIRN).
Presenter: Peter C. B. Phillips, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
World-famous economist Professor Peter Phillips is currently Sterling Professor of Economics and Professor of Statistics at Yale University, Alumni Distinguished Professor of Economics at the University of Auckland, and Visiting Adjunct Professor at the University of York. His main research interests are in econometric theory, financial econometrics, time series and panel data econometrics, and applied macroeconomics. He is founder and Editor of Econometric Theory and founding Editor of Themes in Modern Econometrics for Cambridge University Press.
Topic: A dominant characteristic of economic data is their tendency to trend over time. This behaviour includes the wandering nature of interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation with their long and erratic cycles, as well as the secular drift of economic aggregates like GDP. Much of modern time series econometrics, as well as recent work on panel data, is concerned with the statistical analysis of such trend behaviour, including the possible interconnectedness of the trends across different series. In practice, however, while economists and other commentators often see trends in the data, these trends are at best poorly understood and may not even be properly defined. In scientific work, the econometric modelling of trends is a difficult task where approximation inevitably plays a major role, though this is seldom made explicit. It is also a task where failure has major implications in forecasting and for economic policy. The lectures seek to address this general subject from a wide perspective, concentrating on recent developments. Some new econometric theory and empirical work will be reported. Some empirical examples involving both real aggregate economic time series and financial time series will also be explored.
When: Thursday 29 November 2007, 9am – 4.30pm
Where: Building E4B, Room 314
Division of Economic and Financial Studies
Macquarie University
Who should attend?: Finance, econometrics, actuarial and mathematics academics and students
Cost: $150 per person - FREE FOR CURRENT RESEARCH STUDENTS AND ACADEMICS AT FIRN INSTITUTIONS
Download the Registration form (PDF)
Program:
8.30–9.00am Registration and coffee
9.00–9.15am Opening by Professor Ed Davis,AM, Dean of the Division of Economic and Financial Studies, Macquarie University,
9.15–10.45am Lecture 1: The Mystery of Trend: Using Trends as Coordinates and Instruments
10.45–11.15am Morning tea
11.15-12.45pm Lecture 2: The Passage through Unity: Mildly Integrated and Explosive Time Series
12.45–2.00pm Lunch
2.00pm-3.30pm Lecture 3: Transition and Growth: Econometrics of Convergence and Clustering
3.30pm–4.30pm Afternoon Tea
Registration / Payment Details: to be advised
Please contact
Helen Boneham
Department of Economics, Building E4A410
Division of Economic and Financial Studies
Macquarie University NSW 2109
T: (02) 9850 8488
F: (02) 9850 6069
Conference Details:
Dr Roslyne Joyeux
T: (02) 9850 8487
Fax:(02) 9850 8586
Dr George Milunovich
Department of Economics
Macquarie University NSW 2109
T: (02) 9850-8543
F: (02) 9850-6069
Proudly organised and co-hosted by the Division of Economic and Financial Studies, Macquarie University, and the Financial Integrity Research Network (FIRN).
http://www.firn.net.au/index.html
CRICOS Provider Code 00002J
