A key finding of the research is that our forecasts show a longer complete life expectancy than previous estimates would imply,” explains Tickle. “The advantage of the Lee-Carter method is that it combines a demographic model of mortality with time-series methods of forecasting. The ABS uses period or cross-sectional measures which, though useful as indicators of the overall level of mortality and hence changes over time, are inappropriate for examining survival over the life course.”

According to the study’s findings, between 2000 and 2041, the expected age at death of persons currently aged 50 is forecast to increase from 84.1 to 90.7 years for females and from 80 to 87.2 for males.

For more information read the Macquarie University News, May 2004

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